Gespeichert in:
| Titel: | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
|---|---|
| Von: |
Howard Raiffa
|
| Person: |
Raiffa, Howard
1924-2016 Verfasser aut |
| Hauptverfasser: | |
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Reading, Mass. [u.a.]
Addison-Wesley
1970
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. print. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001393871&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Beschreibung: | XXIII, 309 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0201062909 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV002125725 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20160308 | ||
| 007 | t| | ||
| 008 | 890928s1970 xx d||| |||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 0201062909 |9 0-201-06290-9 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)256168953 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV002125725 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-91 |a DE-M49 |a DE-384 |a DE-473 |a DE-703 |a DE-739 |a DE-355 |a DE-824 |a DE-19 |a DE-634 |a DE-188 |a DE-83 | ||
| 084 | |a QC 020 |0 (DE-625)141237: |2 rvk | ||
| 084 | |a SK 830 |0 (DE-625)143259: |2 rvk | ||
| 084 | |a SK 860 |0 (DE-625)143264: |2 rvk | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Raiffa, Howard |d 1924-2016 |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)119344513 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Decision analysis |b introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |c Howard Raiffa |
| 250 | |a 2. print. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Reading, Mass. [u.a.] |b Addison-Wesley |c 1970 | |
| 300 | |a XXIII, 309 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Entscheidungstheorie | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Logik |0 (DE-588)4036202-4 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Entscheidungstheorie |0 (DE-588)4138606-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Entscheidungstheorie |0 (DE-588)4138606-1 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Logik |0 (DE-588)4036202-4 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | |8 1\p |5 DE-604 | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001393871&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 883 | 1 | |8 1\p |a cgwrk |d 20201028 |q DE-101 |u https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk | |
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-001393871 | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-TUM_call_number | 0520 R.96 0840 77 1001 76.2003 A 744 |
|---|---|
| DE-BY-TUM_katkey | 276798 |
| DE-BY-TUM_location | LSB Mag |
| DE-BY-TUM_media_number | TEMP3122897 TEMP3122898 040050161201 |
| DE-BY-UBR_call_number | 00/QC 020 R149(.70) 80/SK 860 R149 D2 |
| DE-BY-UBR_katkey | 462355 |
| DE-BY-UBR_location | UB Magazin UB Lesesaal Mathematik |
| DE-BY-UBR_media_number | 069033037445 069008059095 |
| _version_ | 1835111014333415425 |
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Chapter 0 Introduction
1 Orientation xix
2 Thumbnail sketches of problems xx
3 The common abstraction xxii
Chapter 1 Your Basic Problem
1 Introduction 1
2 The statement of your problem 1
3 Variations of the theme of your problem 3
Chapter 2 Analysis of Your Basic Problem
1 The data of your problem 7
2 Expected monetary value (emv) 8
3 Analysis of the no-experiment alternative 9
4 The decision flow diagram 10
5 Probability assessments at chance forks 14
6 Averaging out and folding back 21
7 Expected value of perfect information, and opportunity
loss 27
XV
xvi Contents
8 Summary and generalization 33
9 Project 34
Appendix 36
Chapter 3 Uncertain Payoffs and Biased Measurements
1 Introduction 39
2 Uncertain payoffs and sampling costs 40
3 The value of information about payoffs 42
4 Biased measurements 43
5 Project 47
Chapter 4 Utility Theory or What To Do About Non-EMV ers
1 Introduction 51
2 Use of cme s in analysis of a decision-flow diagram ... 53
3 Lotteries with basic reference lottery tickets as prizes . . 57
4 Substitutability 61
5 The substitution of brlt s 62
6 The TT-indifference function for money 66
7 Analysis of your basic decision problem for a non-EMv er . 71
8 Transitivity 75
9 A criticism of the behavioral assumptions 80
10 The maximization of expected utility 86
11 Buying and selling price 89
12 Decreasing risk aversion 91
13 Behavior that is not risk-averse 94
14 Risk control through portfolio selection
and diversification 97
15 Project 100
16 Data for the project suggested in Section 2 101
Chapter 5 Use of Judgmental Probability
1 Introduction 104
2 Objective vagueness 105
3 The calibration of subjective vagueness 108
4 A consistency property for judgmental probability . . . 110
5 The additivity of judgmental P*~measure 114
6 The analysis of the «o~branch 116
7 The reduction of a general lottery 120
8 The revision of judgmental probabilities 124
9 Recapitulation 127
Contents xvii
Chapter G The Normal Form of Analysis
1 Introduction 129
2 Strategies 133
3 Randomized strategies 136
4 Choice of strategy from the efficient set when you are
given P(fl{) 138
5 Modification for a non-EMv er 141
6 Indifference-curve analysis 144
7 The principle of substitution for strategies 145
8 Choice of weights 151
9 Generalizations 152
10 The quest for objective procedures 154
11 Project 156
Chapter 7 More on the Economics of Sampling
1 Introduction 157
2 Is it worth $5.00 to learn the true proportion^? . . . 159
3 Assessment of a judgmental distribution for an uncertain
proportion 161
4 Is it worth $5.00 to learn the true proportion/;? . . . 168
5 Should you sample to obtain information about p? . . . 172
6 Revision of your prior distribution of p in light of sample
evidence 174
7 Should you sample to obtain information about p? . . . 174
8 Generalizations 178
Appendix: Prior-to-posterior analysis for a population
proportion/* 181
Chapter S Risk Sharing and Group Decisions
Part one: Risk sharing
1 Introduction to part one 188
2 A simple example of risk sharing 190
3 Formulation of a more general problem of risk sharing. . 196
4 Pareto optimality 199
5 The choice of a Pareto-optimal point 203
6 Choice between lotteries when sharing is permissible . . 207
7 Choice with sharing when individuals have exponential
utility functions 208
8 An example showing nonexistence of a group utility
function 211
9 Analysis of a decision tree with risk sharing 217
xviii Contents
Part two: Group decisions
10 Introduction to part two 220
11 On combining prior and posterior probability judgments . 221
12 The problem of the panel of experts 228
13 The group decision problem 233
Chapter 9 The Art of Implementation and General Critique
1 Introduction 239
2 When does a tree become a bushy mess? 240
3 The multiattribute problem 246
4 Assessments of several uncertain quantities 256
5 Getting started on a decision analysis 262
6 Pros and cons of decision analysis 268
7 One last remark 272
Chapter 10 Further Perspectives and a Guide to the Literature
1 Subjective probability: historical perspectives .... 273
2 An overview of statistics 278
3 Game theory, gamesmanship, gaming, and decision theory 288
4 Operations research, systems analysis, and decision analysis 295
5 Sketchy guide to the literature 298
Index 301
The Data of Your Basic Problem 312
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Raiffa, Howard 1924-2016 |
| author_GND | (DE-588)119344513 |
| author_facet | Raiffa, Howard 1924-2016 |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Raiffa, Howard 1924-2016 |
| author_variant | h r hr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV002125725 |
| classification_rvk | QC 020 SK 830 SK 860 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)256168953 (DE-599)BVBBV002125725 |
| discipline | Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. print. |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01657nam a2200397 c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV002125725</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20160308 </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t|</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">890928s1970 xx d||| |||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">0201062909</subfield><subfield code="9">0-201-06290-9</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)256168953</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV002125725</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-M49</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-703</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-634</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-83</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">QC 020</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)141237:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SK 830</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)143259:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">SK 860</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)143264:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Raiffa, Howard</subfield><subfield code="d">1924-2016</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)119344513</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Decision analysis</subfield><subfield code="b">introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty</subfield><subfield code="c">Howard Raiffa</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="250" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">2. print.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Reading, Mass. [u.a.]</subfield><subfield code="b">Addison-Wesley</subfield><subfield code="c">1970</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">XXIII, 309 S.</subfield><subfield code="b">graph. Darst.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Entscheidungstheorie</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Logik</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4036202-4</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Entscheidungstheorie</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4138606-1</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Entscheidungstheorie</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4138606-1</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Logik</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4036202-4</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="8">1\p</subfield><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">HBZ Datenaustausch</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001393871&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="883" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="8">1\p</subfield><subfield code="a">cgwrk</subfield><subfield code="d">20201028</subfield><subfield code="q">DE-101</subfield><subfield code="u">https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-001393871</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV002125725 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T07:46:24Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0201062909 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-001393871 |
| oclc_num | 256168953 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-703 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-824 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-634 DE-188 DE-83 |
| owner_facet | DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-703 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-824 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-634 DE-188 DE-83 |
| physical | XXIII, 309 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1970 |
| publishDateSearch | 1970 |
| publishDateSort | 1970 |
| publisher | Addison-Wesley |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Raiffa, Howard 1924-2016 Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Entscheidungstheorie Logik (DE-588)4036202-4 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4036202-4 (DE-588)4138606-1 |
| title | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| title_auth | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| title_exact_search | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| title_full | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Howard Raiffa |
| title_fullStr | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Howard Raiffa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Howard Raiffa |
| title_short | Decision analysis |
| title_sort | decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| title_sub | introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| topic | Entscheidungstheorie Logik (DE-588)4036202-4 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entscheidungstheorie Logik |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001393871&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT raiffahoward decisionanalysisintroductorylecturesonchoicesunderuncertainty |
An UBR ausleihen
Ausleihen an der UBR sind mit eigenem Ausweis möglich.